Economics Expert’s Testimony About Tivity’s Stock Price Drop Excluded
Posted on May 27, 2025 by Expert Witness Profiler
This securities fraud putative class action is based on allegations that Tivity, a publicly traded company, as well as various high-ranking executives, made false or misleading statements and omissions, and had a scheme to defraud investors regarding, facts material to both: the purported success of Tivity’s acquisition of Nutrisystem, Inc. (“Nutrisystem”) in Q1 of 2019 (“Nutrisystem Claim”); and the valuation of Tivity’s goodwill and the Nutrisystem tradename throughout 2019 (“Goodwill Claim”).
According to Lead Plaintiff, Defendants’ materially false or misleading statements and omissions on these issues led to significant losses in shareholder value when, on February 19, 2020, Defendants disclosed Tivity’s financial results for 2019 and forecasts for 2020, and announced the resignation of the Nutrition Segment’s President, Keira Krausz as well as the termination, without cause, of Tivity’s CEO, Donato Tramuto.
Predictably, the effect (or lack thereof) of the allegedly fraudulent statements and omissions on the Corrective Disclosure and Tivity’s eventual decreased stock price is a central contested factual issue of this case. W. Scott Dalrymple sought to opine on the amount of loss Tivity shareholders experienced from Defendants’ scheme to defraud them, as well as their false and misleading statements and omissions, through evaluation of five items in the Corrective Disclosure.
Defendants filed a motion to exclude the testimony of Dalrymple.
Economics Expert Witness
W. Scott Dalrymple is an economist specializing in quantitative valuation, econometrics, statistics, securities analysis, antitrust, financial markets, and intellectual property.
Dalrymple has led numerous consulting, commercial litigation, and restructuring engagements on behalf of multinational companies, investors, financial institutions, and government agencies in the U.S., Europe, and Australia.
Discussion by the Court
Dalrymple is supposed to analyze the impact of the Corrective Disclosure on Tivity’s stock price.
Dalrymple’s Analysis
First of all, Dalrymple assumed that Tivity’s stocks had been trading on a semi-strong form of an efficient market prior to Tivity’s release of the Corrective Disclosure on February 19, 2020. Then, Dalrymple conducted a market model event study by using a regression model to predict expected returns on Tivity’s stock during the event window (i.e., the day of the Corrective Disclosure).
Tellingly, Dalrymple made no attempt to separate the varying purported causes of Tivity’s stock drop included in the Corrective Disclosure—to determine whether some, all, or none of that information was attributable to Defendants’ fraud.
Dalrymple explained this seemingly glaring omission in his analysis. He contended that isolating the effects of the five items in the Corrective Disclosure is unnecessary given all that information is within what Lead Plaintiffs believe to be the zone of risk of Defendants’ concealed fraud.
The Court held that Dalrymple failed to both (1) bridge any connection between the alleged corrective information, Defendants’ fraud, and Tivity’s stock decline, and (2) apply any principled or economic method to support his conclusion that the items in the Corrective Disclosure did not constitute confounding information that required removal from his total damages calculation.
Dalrymple Fails to Properly Analyze the “Corrective” Nutrition Segment Financial Disclosures
The Court held that Dalrymple’s aggregation of the five items in the Corrective Disclosure (the Q4 and 2019 earnings results, Q1 and FY 2020 earnings guidance, impairments to Tivity’s goodwill and the Nutrisystem tradename, and the announcements of Tramuto’s termination and Krausz’s resignation) as a single bundle of new information, despite acknowledgement that some of the information implicated information beyond Defendant’s alleged fraud, demonstrated the issue with his approach.
Dalrymple made no effort to determine whether the Q4 and 2019 earnings results, Q1 and FY 2020 earnings guidance, and impairments to Tivity’s goodwill and the Nutrisystem tradename were actually “corrective.”
Nor did he account for that some of that financial information—information that, according to Lead Plaintiff, made the stock price fall—had already been anticipated by the market based on prior disclosures that the Nutrisystem acquisition may prove unsuccessful.
Because Dalrymple knew the market already anticipated that the Nutrisystem merger may have failed irrespective of Defendants’ fraud, the Court held that his analysis “should have carefully considered whether other factors [other than Defendants’ alleged fraud] might have been at play” in causing Tivity’s stock price decline.
Dalrymple Fails to Properly Analyze the “Corrective” Executive Departure Announcement Disclosures
Dalrymple’s treatment of Tivity’s executive departures revealed in the Corrective Disclosure is equally flawed. As with Dalrymple’s acknowledgement that Tivity’s financial information could contain non-fraud related information, he understood “that Tramuto’s eventual departure from the company may have been anticipated.”
The Court held that Dalrymple’s analysis of the purported corrective disclosures announcing Tramuto’s termination and Krausz’s resignation suffers from another flaw: these items are, as a matter of law, not within the zone of risk of Defendants’ alleged fraud. There is no evidence in the record that Tivity’s announcements of Krausz’s resignation and Tramuto’s termination revealed any fraud perpetuated by Defendants.
Because Dalrymple does not provide any bridge between his opinion that the announcement of Tivity’s executive departures had “limited, if any, negative impact” on Tivity’s share price and an analytical framework supporting that conclusion, the Court held that Dalrymple’s attempt to remove this non-fraud information from his equation is merely inadmissible ipse dixit.
Dalrymple’s Demeanor at the Daubert Hearing Underscores Why His Opinions Should Be Excluded
The shortcomings of Dalrymple’s analyses are compounded by his demeanor on the stand. Dalrymple has extensive experience as an expert in litigation. He has appeared as an expert at trials and hearings on nine prior occasions and has sat for twenty depositions.
However, during one exchange with Defendants’ counsel, Dalrymple directly contradicted his prior deposition testimony that he it did not causally connect any alleged misstatements to any of the five items from the Corrective Disclosure he based his opinions on by attempting to assert the opposite during the Daubert hearing. While testifying is no doubt a stressful experience, even for those familiar with the courtroom, Dalrymple’s contradictory positions about such basic elements of his reports and the tone and tenor of his testimony further underscores the problems with Dalrymple’s testimony and opinions.
Dalrymple’s Testimony and Opinions Are Inadmissible Under Rule 702
In this case, Dalrymple ignored the possibility that a portion of the five items in the Corrective Disclosure did not relate to Defendants’ fraud, and he also chooses to ignore his own knowledge confirming as much.
He then failed to properly deploy any reliable methodology based on sufficient data about the market to analyze whether there were any non-fraudulent factors within the Corrective Disclosure contributing to a drop in Tivity’s stock.
Because Dalrymple did not reliably determine whether the information he relied upon was corrective of Defendants’ fraud, and did not reliably calculate the loss in value, if any, of Tivity’s stock that was caused by only non-fraudulent factors, the Court held that his testimony is also unhelpful to the jury.
Held
The Defendants’ motion to exclude W. Scott Dalrymple’s testimony was granted by the Court.
Key Takeaway:
By presuming that analysts had already priced in all goodwill, integration, and diet-season risks in the Nutrition segment, Dalrymple treats any price drop from the five items in the Corrective Disclosure as necessarily fraud-related. But he finds support of this assumption only in the stock drop itself. For this, and the reasons stated above, his lack of methodological reasoning in disaggregating the fraud and non-fraud information in the Corrective Disclosure raises several “red flags that caution against certifying an expert includ[ing] reliance on anecdotal evidence, improper extrapolation . . . lack of testing, and subjectivity.”
Case Details:
| Case Caption: | Strougo V. Tivity Health, Inc. Et Al |
| Docket Number: | 3:20cv165 |
| Court Name: | United States District Court, Tennessee Middle |
| Order Date: | May 15, 2025 |
