Economics Expert Witness’ Improper State-of-Mind Testimony Excluded
Posted on October 30, 2024 by Expert Witness Profiler
Plaintiffs Richard Dennis, Port 22, LLC, and Michael Glass asserted Commodity Exchange Act and Sherman Antitrust Act claims, alleging that the Andersons, Inc. and Cargill Incorporated, who were supposed competitors, operated multiple grain storage warehouses in Ohio and collaborated to manipulate prices of soft red winter wheat futures and options contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade.
According to the Plaintiff, the Andersons, Inc. sold SRW wheat to the major purchasers in October and November 2017 to suppress demand for physical SRW wheat and then, on November 29, 2017, registered for delivery two thousand certificates of CBOT December 2017 SRW wheat.
This registration (falsely, Plaintiffs say) signaled that TAI would sell ten million bushels of physical SRW wheat to parties holding long positions in December 2017 SRW wheat futures and caused a marked price decrease in the December 2017 SRW wheat futures contract and widened the spread between the December 2017 and March 2018 SRW wheat futures contracts.
TAI and Cargill later repurchased some of the shipping certificates TAI had delivered at the decreased prices. Plaintiffs allegedly transacted in December 2017 and March 2018 SRW wheat futures and lost money because of the decreased prices caused by the scheme.
Plaintiffs’ expert Craig Pirrong opined in relevant part that Defendants artificially depressed prices of the December 2017 and March 2018 SRW wheat futures through a market manipulation that injured Plaintiffs on a class-wide basis; Pirrong also provided a methodology for determining individual damages. Through the report of their expert, Professor Justin McCrary, Defendants purported to challenge the reliability of Pirrong’s studies. Plaintiffs attacked Professor McCrary’s qualifications.
Economics Expert Witnesses
Justin McCrary is an “economist with expertise in microeconomics, economic modeling, and statistical method,” who teaches at the Law School at Columbia University. He has taught courses on economic theory econometric theory, antitrust, law and economics, and statistics and is a reviewer for leading peer-reviewed economics journals. He served on the Board of Directors of the American Law and Economics Association and has published papers in prominent economic journals.
Craig Pirrong‘s extensive qualifications includes approximately 30 years of concentrating professionally on competition and manipulation of prices with a focus on Chicago Mercantile Exchange wheat, soybean, and corn futures contracts; publishing a dozen peer-reviewed articles and a book on commodity futures manipulation and pricing; presenting to and consulting with federal agencies on manipulation; and testifying as an expert.
Discussion by the Court
Professor Justin McCrary
Plaintiffs argued McCrary: (1) is unqualified to give an opinion in this class action alleging market manipulation in wheat futures and options; (2) tenders opinions that are unreliable because they lack a scientific basis and he has never performed such quantitative work before; and (3) offers irrelevant opinions.
McCrary’s Qualifications
Plaintiffs insisted McCrary is unqualified to render an opinion in the realm of the commodity futures market, a conclusion they say is underscored by his professed unfamiliarity with “basic industry terminology” like “front month,” “spot month,” “strong stopper,” and “cash contract.”
The Court held that Plaintiffs’ surface-level attack on McCrary’s background and education is insufficient to demonstrate his lack of qualification, and the Court declines to exclude McCrary’s opinions, which Plaintiffs do not deny are rooted in statistics and economics, merely because he neither purports to be nor appears to be an expert in commodities futures trading or manipulation.
Reliability of McCrary’s Opinions
Plaintiffs argued McCrary’s opinions are unreliable, first, for lacking a scientific basis—because he opines Pirrong’s analyses fail to account for confounding fundamental factors that McCrary himself neither identified nor analyzed to determine any potential impact. But, as Defendants retort, that was not McCrary’s task; neither Daubert nor Rule 702 required McCrary to perform independent studies.
Although Plaintiffs labelled McCrary’s analysis thin and McCrary a mere mouthpiece for the defense, the Court finds he sufficiently explained the underpinnings for his opinions, which flow from his review of relevant literature, his expertise, experience and knowledge.
Finally, Plaintiffs attacked an isolated sentence of McCrary’s opinion regarding Pirrong’s event study and further attacked his criticism of Pirrong’s damages model because McCrary had “never worked with” data types he used in performing his calculations. The Court agreed with Defendants that the former argument takes McCrary’s statement out of context , and the latter argument lacks force because Plaintiffs identified no errors in McCrary’s calculations.
Relevance of McCrary’s Opinions
Plaintiffs finally briefly recycle most of the foregoing arguments, which the Court already has rejected, into an argument that Professor McCrary’s opinions will not help the trier of fact. Again, the Court disagreed. Although Professor McCrary does regurgitate some record evidence (such as that SRW wheat would be aging between December 2017 and March 2018), he does not merely repeat evidence but adds his opinions to the evidence he recites, including that Pirrong should have accounted for the aging of the wheat and other factors. For these reasons and those set forth above in addressing Plaintiffs’ prior arguments, the Court declines to strike McCrary’s opinions because they are relevant to understanding and analyzing Pirrong’s opinions regarding class certification.
Craig Pirrong
Plaintiffs proffered their expert witness, Dr. Craig Pirrong, an economist, who intended to testify that Defendants’ alleged manipulation artificially deflated prices in the December 2017 and March 2018 SRW wheat futures markets and caused damages to the proposed class that are capable of calculation on a class-wide basis.
In support, he presented: (1) an event study with regression analysis meant to measure the existence and amount of alleged price-artificiality in the December 2017 and March 2018 SRW futures and options contracts that is attributable to Defendants’ conduct rather than chance or other market factors; and (2) a damages model that takes the output from the event study as an input to calculate a range of aggregate damages. Such models may meet Plaintiffs’ burdens at the class certification stage.
A. Pirrong’s Event Study with Regression to Predict “But For” Wheat Prices
Pirrong first employed an event study with regression analysis intended to predict what prices would have been absent Defendants’ actions and statements.
In the context of this case, Pirrong’s regression model uses other grain commodities traded on CBOT as control variables; he estimates the historical relationship among the SRW wheat futures prices and the control variables by using “a control period consisting of data from March 1 to November 29 for the CBOT wheat futures contract for each year from 2005 through 2017.”
According to Pirrong, the model computes what would have been, but for Defendants’ conduct, the prices for December 2017 and March 2018 SRW wheat futures for each trading day between November 30, 2017 and December 14, 2017. He attributed the difference between his model’s output of estimated prices for December 2017 and March 2018 SRW wheat futures prices and the actual December 2017 and March 2018 SRW wheat futures prices to a “price artificiality” due to Defendant’s conduct.
Thought Defendants acknowledged that statistical regression is an established methodology, they argued that Pirrong “employed a ‘reliable methodology in an unreliable way” because the “results” are not “statistically significant” under generally accepted statistical principles and lead to an unacceptably high rate of false positives (predicted price manipulation in years in which none is alleged). They insisted that the study “cannot rule out” other potential causes of the SRW wheat futures price changes and has “dubious predictive value.”
1. Statistical Significance
Pirrong himself described p-values as “giving the probability of observing the residual,” which, here, is price artificiality, and conceded that “conventional thresholds” for statistical significance are five percent (0.05) and ten percent (0.1).
Defendants asserted that p-values above 0.05 indicate unreliable regression study results and emphasize “Pirrong offered no thresholds for determining when his event study results should be considered statistically significant,” despite having agreed that one must “choose a threshold” to “establish statistical significance.”
The Court is unconvinced that all of his results should be excluded due to some p-values above 0.05, particularly where seven of eleven days (November 30 through December 8, 2017) within the December 2017 SRW wheat contracts regression analysis returned p-values with statistical significance at the five percent level. Nor does the Court find that Pirrong’s non-articulation of a statistical significance threshold warrants blanket exclusion of his results here.
Second, even if Defendants sought to exclude just dates for which a p-value above 0.05 was returned, the Court under these circumstances declines to adopt a “hard and fast rule” requiring p-values of 0.05 or below, which in essence “evaluates statistical significance as a binary question” where “statistical significance lies at the 4.99% level but not at the 5.01% level.'”
Pirrong also emphasized that “eminent statisticians” have increasingly criticized the use of statistical significance cutoffs “because it is misleading and leads to erroneous conclusions” and that one should avoid “‘dichotomization as statistically significant or not.'”
The Court held that Defendants’ arguments go to the weight, rather than the admissibility, of the regression study results. Pirrong’s event study results in the December 2017 and March 2018 SRW Wheat futures contracts are sufficiently reliable for consideration.
2. Rate of False Positives
Defendants next asserted Pirrong’s study is undermined by the rate of “false positives,” or instances in which Pirrong’s model predicts price artificiality in years in which no manipulation is alleged. Defendants argued the higher the threshold for statistical significance one accepts as to the event study, the higher the rate of false positives the model returns. Accepting, for example, a 43% threshold for statistical significance (drawn from the highest p-value result Pirrong endorses, 0.43, applied across both the December 2017 and March 2018 studies) suggested price manipulation on 85% of the days for which Plaintiffs did not claim manipulation.
Adopting a 5% statistical significance level (which would result in statistical significance for the results of just seven days in the December 2017 study and none in the March 2018 study) garners a 19.66% rate of false positives. Defendants argued that these rates of false positives show the event study does not reflect a reliable application of statistical methods to this case.
Although the explanation regarding false positives is not robust, the Court nevertheless found that Pirrong’s testimony is “closer to shaky than unreliable.”
B. Pirrong’s Damages Estimates
Pirrong proffered damages methodologies to calculate individual damages and estimate aggregate class-wide damages using linear programming (the LP model).
1. Pirrong’s Use of “Permanent Artificiality” in March 2018 SRW Wheat Futures from December 14, 2017 through March 14, 2018
Defendants first attacked Pirrong’s opinion that the March 2018 SRW wheat futures contract had a permanent fixed artificial price depression of 1.2¢ per bushel from December 14, 2017 to March 14, 2018. Defendants asserted this use of a constant 1.2¢ residual is undermined by Pirrong’s choice to use a day-to-day approach for other transactions, as well as his opinion that publicly available information is immediately incorporated into the SRW futures marketplace.
Pirrong, though, opined that Defendants “distorted consumption by making excessive deliveries,” only a “fraction” of which they later repurchased, causing immediate consumption of wheat that “should have remained in storage for consumption later.” The effects of their actions “persisted into the indefinite future beyond November 30, 2017,” thus “distorting supply-demand fundamentals far into the future” and causing ongoing effects on prices. This price artificiality, Pirrong asserted, would remain constant after the December 2017 SRW wheat contract expired both because Defendants’ actions in the December contract could not affect prices after the expiration, and in an efficient futures market, the impacts of Defendants’ actions would be reflected in prices quickly and permanently.
Pirrong’s explanation provides support for his choice. And, despite Defendants’ attack, the Court held that his testimony is not “unsupported ipse dixit” because, rather than “pluck his conclusions out of thin air” he reviewed the identified records, performed studies, and applied his extensive experience in futures markets to reach those conclusions.
2. Outputs of the Damages Model
Defendants challenged the LP Model outputs for the model’s reliance “on the daily artificiality residual (i.e., the daily artificiality estimate produced by the event study) to calculate hundreds of thousands of hypothetical possible trade scenarios and conjures a supposed aggregate damage range for class members,” because it “cannot be applied to estimate the loss for any class member,” includes “computational errors that artificially inflate the damages estimate,” and did not “account for characteristics specific to many entities and individuals included in the group Pirrong purports to study,” like intraday traders and traders with offsets.
The Court held that Pirrong’s calculations, based upon his event studies, are sufficient to meet Plaintiff’s low burden here.
Defendants’ argument that “the LP model has several computational errors that artificially inflate the damages estimate” did not suggest damages cannot be calculated on a class-wide basis, and the Court is not seeking to calculate actual damages at this stage. As Plaintiffs point out, Defendants’ related argument that Pirrong’s model did not account for the characteristics of certain traders, boils down to an argument that some members of the defined class “ultimately were not harmed” by Defendants conduct, i.e., that their claims “will fail on the merits if and when damages are decided,” which is “a fact generally irrelevant to the district court’s decision on class certification.”
C. State-of-Mind Opinions and Legal Conclusions by Pirrong
Defendants argued that “Pirrong, an economist, lacks an analytically sound basis for ostensibly psychological conclusions” about Defendants’ “knowledge or intentions.”
The Court held that Pirrong properly may testify regarding “conclusions drawn only in his capacity as an economist.” This includes opining on potential economic motives of a party but not testimony of what a party knew because Pirrong is not more qualified than an ordinary juror to make the latter inferences.
Held
The Court denied Plaintiffs’ motion to exclude the testimony of Professor Justin McCrary, and the Court granted in part and denied in part the Defendants’ motion to exclude the testimony of Craig Pirrong.
Key Takeaways:
- Professor McCrary neither purports to be nor appears to be an expert in commodities futures trading or manipulation but his opinions are rooted in statistics and economics.
- The Court, like many others presented with the question, declines to use statistical significance at the five percent level as a proxy for reliability, and thus admissibility, for the purposes of Rule 702 and Daubert. Considering the entire data set presented, Pirrong’s explanations, and the class definition Plaintiffs propose regarding transactions of December 2017 and March 2018 SRW wheat set forth above, Defendants’ arguments go to the weight, rather than the admissibility, of the regression study results.
- First, the Court has resolved the related argument regarding p-values, finding they do not render Pirrong’s testimony inadmissibly unreliable, in large part due to Pirrong’s explanation that “sound economic reasoning” indicates the impact of Defendants conduct would not have dispersed within days, despite the p-value results, and the spread was wider than anticipated for the December 2017 through March 2018 SRW wheat futures. Because Defendants’ false positives argument spins off from the p-values discussion and applies an across-the-board 43% threshold for statistical significance not adopted by Pirrong, the Court is disinclined to reach a different result here. Second, Defendants point to no flaws in Pirrong’s inputs to his studies. Defendants may explore false positives or other questions as to Pirrong’s studies through traditional evidentiary mechanisms.
- Legal conclusions are inadmissible, while state-of-mind testimony is admissible where helpful to the jury and its probative value is not outweighed by a risk of unfair prejudice. The admissibility of alleged state-of-mind assertions is more nuanced. Direct opinions regarding state of mind are improper, although an expert may testify regarding the consistency of a certain action with a particular state of mind.
Case Details:
| Case Caption: | Dennis V. The Andersons Inc. |
| Docket Number: | 1:20cv4090 |
| Court: | United States District Court, Illinois Northern |
| Order Date: | October 07, 2024 |
